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Safety Score model retrain

 

Why Retraining the Safety Score Model is Essential

Over time, the distribution of vessels becomes misaligned with the parameters set by the original data set. This is expected as the underlying market conditions evolve.

As vessels experience fluctuations—whether improving or declining in various data aspects—their alignment with the original normal distribution may drift, skewing the results. This shift can occur as vessels either improve or deteriorate, while market demands fluctuate, affecting each data aspect differently. Example:

Incidents –The industry may experience a period with decreased incidents.

DOC –Industry performance improves and DOC Fleet performance rises

PSC – Inspection findings might increase as Port State Controls (PSCs) globally tighten regulations.

DETENTIONS – Detention levels might decrease as PSCs modify their rules.

 

Indicators for Safety Score Model Recalibration

As vessel distributions shift across each scoring area, the weighted sum scores also become skewed. This results in:

An increase or decrease in the number of vessels allocated to each specific Safety Score than originally intended. The longer the interval between recalibrations, the more vessels drift out of alignment with the designated percentiles

At this stage, it becomes essential to recalibrate the model to align with the most recent dataset. This process involves considering key questions, such as the current market conditions that vessels are facing across the six data sets and how these conditions compare to one another.

Retraining the model achieves several critical outcomes. It ensures the relevance and reliability of vessel rankings against current market data, maintains the proper distribution of vessels across Safety Scores, and provides an opportunity to improve and enhance the model for greater accuracy and effectiveness.

 

Analogy: Exam Grading System

To better understand the calibration process, consider a mock exam grading system. Initially, the grading is set as follows: a score of 70% earns a C, 80% earns a B, and 90% earns an A. However, only 30% of the test-takers can achieve an A.

If all test-takers score 90% or higher, the system needs recalibration. The new calibration settings would be: 90% earns a C, 95% earns a B, and 98% earns an A. This adjustment ensures that only 30% of the test-takers achieve an A, maintaining the intended distribution of grades.

Similarly, in the Safety Score Model, the normal distribution curve and percentile thresholds are applied to ensure that the distribution of Safety Scores remains consistent and meaningful, even as the data evolves.

 

Update on the Monthly Retrain

In our continuous effort to enhance the accuracy and relevance of our safety assessments, are now undertaking monthly retrains.

The primary objective of monthly retrains is to ensure that our safety scores accurately reflect the latest safety performance records, regulatory changes, and operational trends.

 

Key highlights of the Safety Score model retraining

  1. Updated Historical Data: The model now includes data from 2019 onwards, reflecting the latest safety performance and operational trends. This update allows us to offer more accurate and relevant vessel safety scores.

  2. Refined Scores Scale: The Safety Score and its subscores, provided on a scale of 1 to 5, have been recalibrated based on the updated data. This recalibration ensures that the scores accurately represent the current safety status of each vessel and its affiliated entities, offering a clear and precise measure of their safety performance.

  3. Enhanced Reliability: The retraining process has strengthened the reliability of our safety scores. With the inclusion of the latest data, our model offers a more comprehensive view of vessel safety, ensuring that our clients receive the most dependable assessments.

Changes due to retraining:

Most of the changes in safety scores are attributable to the retraining process. Even if there are no major changes in the methodology, the scores still change as the thresholds and boundaries are adjusted to accommodate the latest data. Vessels may see fluctuations in their Safety Score depending on where they find themselves in relation to other vessels.

Since all scores are benchmarked against each other, the performance of vessels naturally varies over time, with some improving and others declining. This variability causes shifts in the score distribution.

 

Other Considerations:

How a vessel relates to other vessels in the fleet is central to the RightShip Safety Score model. Hybrid rules override relative rankings of vessels to designate a result for a specific aspect that is considered important, but not addressed by the model.